2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds, picks, predictions; Pete Alonso favored to win

By Sufiyan Tadavi

July 15, 2024

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The MLB All-Star break is here and Monday is one of the best days on the baseball calendar, the Home Run Derby!

Last year’s winner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, will not be in the field to defend his title.

Instead, Pete Alonso is favored to win at +320. He has 19 home runs on the season.

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This will be Alonso’s fifth consecutive Derby appearance. He won it in his first two attempts, in 2019 and 2021, before falling short the past two years.

With a win, Alonso can put his name in the history books, as Ken Griffey Jr. is the only player to win the Derby three times.

Can he make history tonight?

Let’s take a look at the full odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 15.

Pete Alonso, Mets: +320 (bet $10 to win $42)
Marcell Ozuna, Braves: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50)
Bobby Witt Jr, Royals: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50)
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles: +450 (bet $10 to win $55)
Adolis García, Rangers: +550 (bet $10 to win $65)
Teoscar Hernández, Dodgers: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120)
José Ramírez, Guardians: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150)
Alec Bohm, Phillies: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190)

Gunnar Henderson is another big name that will compete in tonight’s Derby.

Henderson, making his first Home Run Derby appearance, is having a fantastic first half of his season. He is currently third in the MLB in home runs with 28, only trailing Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

He is +450 to win it.

The 9th All-Star Game can be seen on FOX and the FOX Sports App at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

FOX Sports betting analyst Sam Panayotovich shared his best bets for Monday’s HR Derby:

“Pete Alonso seems to be everybody’s favorite pick. The two-time champion (’19, ’21) is built for this event and his stamina is otherworldly. But he’s not unbeatable. There’s no way I’m betting him at +300, either. No thanks.”

“I’ll take a shot with Rangers slugger Adolis Garcia, a guy who knows Globe Life Field better than anybody in this competition. Longshot wise, I can’t get over the price on Jose Ramirez. He’s 12/1 at BetMGM, 13/1 at DraftKings and 15/1 at FanDuel. He’s a littler guy, but his smooth, powerful swing makes him a very nice dark horse.”

PICK: $100 Adolis Garcia +600 (BetMGM) (bet $100 to win $700 total)
PICK: $40 Jose Ramirez +1500 (FanDuel) (bet $40 to win $640 total)

This year’s HR Derby will take place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Garcia looks to become the fourth player to win the Derby at his home ballpark and the first since Bryce Harper took it at Nationals Park in 2018.

Garcia showed off his power in the 2023 playoffs, as he led the Rangers to a World Series title. Garcia’s eight home runs last postseason are tied for the second most in MLB playoff history.

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