ORLANDO — The most important game is the next one, or so any coach will have you believe.
It’s a classic college football cliché and, sure, there’s a fair share of truth involved. Teams don’t typically begin preparations for their opponents until the week of the game. But once a schedule is finalized, it’s also fairly easy to determine which contests could ultimately decide the trajectory of the season.
For UCF, most of its final 10 games figure to be toss-ups on paper. That’s the nature of the new-look Big 12, which features five teams ranked in the debut US LBM Coaches Poll (No. 13 Utah, No. 17 Kansas State, No. 18 Oklahoma State, No. 21 Arizona and No. 24 Kansas). The Knights learned the week-to-week grind the hard way in 2023 and hope to avoid repeating the same mistakes.
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Several anticipated clashes missed the cut, but here are three games that could go a long way toward deciding whether the Knights will push for the College Football Playoff or scramble just to make a bowl game at season’s end.
TCU, Sept. 14
TCU recently hit the heights Gus Malzahn envisions UCF could soon achieve.
The Horned Frogs became the Big 12’s first national championship game competitor two seasons ago, although the outcome laid bare the gap between Georgia and the rest of the field. They crashed back to Earth last fall, however, with a 5-7 record and a change of defensive coordinators.
UCF started its Big 12 tenure on the wrong foot in 2023, dropping its first five games against conference opponents. The Knights should get two wins under their belt with little fuss, against New Hampshire and Sam Houston, before a critical road trip to Fort Worth, Texas.
Gus Malzahn has a 7-9 record in road games as UCF’s head coach, and the Knights went 1-4 away from home against Big 12 foes in 2023. Both teams will still be attempting to properly fit their new pieces from the transfer portal, though TCU gets an earlier litmus test with an Aug. 30 road trip to ACC newcomer Stanford.
Knocking off the Frogs would serve as an early statement that UCF can deliver the goods in difficult environments, and it would build much needed momentum into a bye week before Deion Sanders and Colorado invade the Bounce House.
Florida, Oct. 5
The first meeting in a planned three-game series over the next decade, UCF visits the Swamp to kick off October. Pulling off a perceived upset there could have long-lasting ramifications for both programs.
UCF needs every possible competitive advantage in the statewide recruiting wars. Malzahn said recently that on-field results are the key to unlocking the school’s true potential in landing premier talent. Beating the Gators in the Gasparilla Bowl mattered to the Knights in 2021. Prized defensive end target Kaven Call, who is competing for a starting job this fall, committed two days later.
“I thought, ‘Why not play for the best team in Florida in UCF?’ I see they have something going,” Call said in a December 2022 interview with The News-Journal. “Coach Gus, his plan is really being put in and I see them really turning things around. … Once I saw that, I told him I wanted to be a part of that plan.”
Non-conference wins against SEC and Big 10 programs will also be vital to securing additional CFP wild cards. The Big 12’s champion automatically qualifies for the new 12-team tournament, but the two juggernaut leagues are expected to dominate most of the available at-large bids.
The Gators can ill afford a loss to the Knights, either — with a schedule that shapes up as one of the toughest in the nation. Florida’s five November games are a true gauntlet, facing Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in succession.
Billy Napier — 11-14 in his first two years in charge — needs as many wins as possible to turn down the heat surrounding his job security, and a home loss to UCF might be seen as unforgivable among the Florida faithful.
Arizona, Nov. 2
In order to keep its perfect Space Game record intact, UCF might have to take down another nationally ranked team.
The Citronauts crushed then-No. 15 Oklahoma State 45-3 in last season’s biggest surprise, holding Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon to 25 rushing yards on 12 carries. UCF improved its record to 7-0 all-time in its annual Space Game, outscoring opponents 349-147 — an average margin of victory of 28.9 points per game.
Arizona, fresh off a 10-win campaign, ended the year on a seven-game heater with an Alamo Bowl triumph over Oklahoma. Despite losing head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, the Wildcats retained the vast majority of their top players, including quarterback Noah Fifita, wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, offensive tackle Jonah Savaiinaea, linebacker Jacob Manu and cornerback Tacario Davis.
The five games after Florida represent a make-or-break stretch of the Knights’ schedule. Iowa State is a difficult road test, sandwiched by fellow Big 12 sophomores Cincinnati and BYU. After Arizona, UCF has back-to-back matchups away from home, heading to Arizona State and West Virginia.
It will be critical to the overall résumé to defeat an expected title contender and a point of pride in staying undefeated while adopting the Citronaut moniker.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: UCF football: 3 most important games on Knights’ 2024 schedule
