GAINESVILLE — Florida’s visit from No. 19 Miami on Saturday in the Swamp has a make-or-break feel.
A victory would provide season-opening optimism for Billy Napier. A loss would rekindle doomsday scenarios for the third-year coach.
Neither result or reaction might have staying power against a schedule featuring seven subsequent preseason Top-25 foes. But perception is reality when a program is coming consecutive losing seasons featuring just two wins in 11 meetings with ranked opponents.
“We understand,” Napier said. “One of the things about this group of players: They’ve got pretty good awareness. They understand the magnitude of the game.”
UF has won 33 straight home openers, but is a 2.5-point underdog against Miami, which has talent and motivation following a 7-6 season.
In-state rivals coming off disappointing finishes have questions and concerns entering their first meeting in Gainesville since 2008.
How does Miami QB Cam Ward handle the Swamp?
The Gators’ crowd has overwhelmed many talented signal callers.
Future stars Joe Burrow of LSU and Bo Nix of Auburn each threw 3 interceptions during losses in 2018 and ’19. Eight years ago, Missouri’s Drew Locke averaged a league-high 335 passing yards when he arrived, but produced just 39 along with a pair of pick-sixes.
During the Gators’ 29-16 win against Tennessee in September, the Swamp rattled quarterback Joe Milton III and caused five false starts and two wasted timeouts during the Vols’ opening second-half drive.
Next up Ward, one of the top quarterback targets in the transfer portal.
Few have his experience or track record, including 13,874 passing yards and 119 touchdowns during two seasons each at Washington State and FCS Incarnate Word.
“I feel I’ve been watching Cam Ward forever,” Napier said.
Never at either school did the 22-year-old face the hostile environment he will in a sold-out Swamp.
“Gator Nation is going to be on full display Saturday,” Napier said. “We’re going to have 93,000 of our dearest friends out there. It’s critical.
“We want to create a nightmare for the opponent.”
Ward hasn’t been as sharp on the road. He threw 9 of his 16 interceptions at Washington State during 12 away games and 28 of 48 touchdowns in 13 home games.
Who else will test Florida’s defense?
Coach Mario Cristobal made sure Ward won’t have to carry the ‘Canes’ attack.
Miami signed 247Sports’ No. 2 tailback out of the portal, Damien Martinez (Oregon State), and the No. 10 receiver, Sam Brown (Houston). Martinez rushed for 1,185 yards and 9 touchdowns; Brown posted 103 receptions for 1,286 yards and 7 scores the past two seasons.
Meanwhile, slot standout Xavier Restrepo (85 catches, 1,092 yards, 6 TDs) will be Ward’s go-to option.
“They’re going to give him the ball,” UF veteran cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. said.
Marshall and the secondary were allowed 8.3 yards per attempt last season to rank 119th nationally and a 146.29 pass rating (111th); the run defense yielded 4.84 yards per carry (111th); and the Gators’ 22 sacks tied for 101st.
Significant improvement across the board is imperative against Miami’s retooled attack.
Are Austin Barber and Florida’s offensive line ready for DE Rueben Bain Jr. and Co?
The Gators’ biggest question mark goes against the Hurricanes’ biggest strength.
Florida will find out quickly whether the O-line has improved.
The unit remains a work in progress — and a bit of a state secret. Who will take the field first remains undecided.
There are options.
“There’s four tackles on our team that I think we could put out there and play in a game right now,” Napier said.
Whoever lines up will have his hands full with Bain and the Hurricanes’ front seven. The Miami native and middle linebacker Francisco Mauigoa combined for 30.5 tackles for losses, including 7.5 sacks each.
On the other side from Bain, veteran end Akheem Mesidor returns after missing last season with surgeries on both feet after he tallied 10.5 TFLs in 2022.
Everything begins with the 6-foot-3, 275-pound Bain as the focal point.
“He’s just really unique,” Napier said. “Loose-hipped, twitchy power. He’s instinctive. We anticipate him even being better in Year 2.”
Barber’s growth at left tackle is key. The redshirt junior was a Freshman All-America on the right side in 2022, but struggled with injuries and the position switch last season as UF allowed 39 sacks.
Can Mertz capitalize on UF’s speed at receiver?
Sophomore Aidan Mizell of Orlando and true freshmen Tank Hawkins are track stars in cleats, topping 23 mph on GPS tracking. Wisconsin transfer Chimere Dike’s topped his personal best each time he tested this offseason. Sophomore Tre Wilson is quicker than a hiccup.
They’re not alone.
The Gators have speed to burn on the outside. It can be hard to keep up.
“It doesn’t really make me feel like I’m slow,” redshirt junior Kahleil Jackson said. “But it definitely motivates me to get a little bit faster.”
Mertz aims to play a little bolder and push the ball down field. An SEC-leading completion rate of 72.9% and just 3 interceptions in 2023 belied his reputation as being reckless at Wisconsin.
But his average depth of target (ADOT) was 6.8 yards, or about 3 yards below the top QBs.
“We are trying to get Graham to be more aggressive without being careless,” Napier said. “He proved that he could play clean ball. Now, let’s try to be aggressive.”
Mertz is ready to silence his skeptics of his downfield passing. Last year, UF managed just 14 completions of 30 yards or longer, tied for 104th nationally.
“One thing the guys are excited for: We want to be explosive,” he said. “We weren’t as explosive as we wanted last year. I like the deep ball, too.”
Edgar Thompson can be reached at egthompson@orlandosentinel.com
Miami at UF
When: Saturday, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, 3:30 p.m.
TV: ABC
