The Auburn Tigers (1-0) are coming off one of their most dominant victories in program history in week one after hanging 73 points on Alabama A&M last Saturday. California (1-0) on the other hand took care of business in week one as well, taking down the UC Davis Aggies by a score of 31-3. While both squads come into this week two matchup undefeated, Hugh Freeze’s Tigers are the clear favorites, both in ESPN FPI (81.6% chance to win) and on the sports books, as Auburn is currently favored by 13.5 points on BetMGM.
Even with experts assuming Auburn improves to 2-0 on Saturday, Cal is a much, much, better team than Alabama A&M. The Golden Bears pushed Auburn to the brink in Berkeley a year ago, and the talented ACC program has the chance to do the same this weekend. Here are five ways Cal can flatline the Tigers hopes of a 2-0 start on the Plains.
A healthy Jaydn Ott controls the tempo
The best player on the offensive side of the ball for Cal is far and away junior running back Jaydn Ott. Coming off of a sophomore campaign in which he accumulated over 1,200 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns, the Golden Bears offense runs literally and figuratively on the legs of their star tail back.
While the Chino, CA native missed some action in his team’s week one victory, he still finished with a very respectable 14 carries, 49 rushing yards, and 2 touchdowns. He has a knack for finding the end zone, and a revamped Auburn defensive line is going to have its hands full stopping the 6-foot, 200-pound bruiser. As long as the Tigers can contain him the same way they did in 2023 (20/70/1), they should be fine. A few breakaway runs could change the momentum of the game quickly, however.
Cal’s secondary forces Payton Thorne into bad decisions
The Golden Bears secondary was able to force 3 interceptions on opening weekend. Of the three defensive backs that swiped passes from UC Davis quarterback Miles Hastings, only one, Nohl Williams, played in the game against Auburn last season. Now a senior, Williams intercepted only two passes last season. One of them was against Auburn in week two.
Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne is coming off an outstanding performance that earned him the sixth highest PFF grade among college quarterbacks in week one. The senior did not commit a turnover, which was an issue that plagued him for much of 2023. Now facing a much more talented secondary, Thorne will need to make it a point to avoid turnovers in what should be a much closer contest on Saturday.
Auburn’s offense is unable to sustain drives
Auburn’s offense scored 9 touchdowns in Saturday’s week one victory. All 9 were scored on drives consisting of six plays for less. While the uber-efficient showing brought many of optimism and highlights, relying on big plays, especially against good competition, is not a winning recipe.
While Cal isn’t an upper-echelon Power 5 program, the Golden Bears defense is going to undoubtedly provide much more resistance than the Alabama A&M coverage team did. The Golden Bears have the opportunity to catch Auburn’s offense in the early stages of the season when the Tigers will certainly have kinks to work through. If they can take advantage of that, this game may be closer than expected.
Cal sophomore quarterback Fernando Mendoza builds on strong end to 2023
Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza took over the starting job in Berkeley about half way through last season. While he hasn’t exactly taken the job and run, the sophomore has been serviceable since becoming the starter on October 7 of last season. He’s shown the ability to perform in big games, as the best performance of his career came in 2023 against Caleb Williams and USC, when he threw for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for 48 yards and 2 more scores.
If the Miami, FL native can strike lightning in a bottle and return to how he performed on that day, Cal has a legitimate shot at taking down Auburn on the road.
Auburn’s new weapons experience a “week one hangover”
The Auburn receiving core went absolutely nuclear in week one against Alabama A&M. KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Malcolm Simmons, Cam Coleman, and Perry Thompson combined for 315 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in the contest, including 3 touchdowns in the games’ first 4 minutes.
While the statistical avalanche was great to see, the level of competition they did it against is hard to ignore. If Lambert-Smith and company don’t come into the game against Cal locked in, lazier run routes and lapses in concentration could spell disaster for the Auburn passing game.
This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Five reasons Cal can come into Jordan-Hare and beat Auburn on Saturday
