Free Press sports writer Chris Solari breaks down Michigan State football‘s matchup with Ohio State on Saturday night in a Big Ten matchup in East Lansing.
Fast facts
Matchup: Michigan State (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (3-0, 0-0).
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Saturday; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
TV/radio: Online only on Peacock; WJR-AM (760).
Line: Buckeyes by 23½.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State injury report
MSU: Out: OL Kristian Phillips (left leg, season), OL Gavin Broscious (lower left leg, season), DB Khalil Majeed (lower body, season), CB Chance Rucker (arm), WR Alante Brown (upper body), DB Dillon Tatum (lower body). Questionable: WR Nick Marsh (right knee), WR Jaron Glover (undisclosed), WR Antonio Gates Jr. (undisclosed), DE Avery Dunn (undisclosed). Probable: S Malik Spencer (ankle), DB Angelo Grose (undisclosed).
Ohio State: Questionable: DT Tyleik Williams (undisclosed), OL Donovan Jackson (undisclosed), WR Reis Stocksdale (undisclosed), RB Rashid SeSay (undisclosed).
Michigan State vs. Ohio State scouting report
When MSU has the ball: In Saturday’s 23-19 loss at Boston College, the Spartans’ first of the season, quarterback Aidan Chiles gave MSU a chance to win with his ability to evade pressure, and ultimately threw it away with three interceptions. Without his top four receivers (Marsh, Glover, Gates and Brown), it was another moment of maturation for Chiles, whose seven interceptions through four weeks is tied for second-most in the 133-team Football Bowl Subdivision. The sophomore’s 57 rushing yards vs. BC were the most of his career, and Chiles’ 1-yard TD sneak was his team-leading third rushing score. Chiles, an Oregon State transfer, is 63-for-166 passing (54.3%) for 981 yards and four touchdowns and has run for 95 yards on 27 attempts. He may need to get more involved in the struggling ground game, as MSU averages 153.8 yards per game to rank 75th in FBS but has struggled at the line in allowing penetration that has put Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams in trouble as they take handoffs. Carter — who had 52 yards on 11 attempts in last year’s 38-3 loss to the Buckeyes — averages 51.7 yards a game, while Lynch-Adams averages 67.8 yards a game behind an offensive line that is on to its third right guard due to injuries. … The Buckeyes rank second nationally in total defense (180 yards per game), fifth in passing yards allowed (113.3), seventh against the run (66.7 yards allowed) and fourth in scoring defense (6.7 points). However, those numbers have been boosted by blowing out low- to mid-major opponents Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall.
When OSU has the ball: The Spartans continue to show improvement after four seasons of decline on defense under Mel Tucker and Scottie Hazelton. New coordinator Joe Rossi’s group continues to swarm to the ball, holding mobile Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos to 15 yards on 15 attempts Saturday and stuffing him twice on a runs near the goal line. MSU has been getting solid coverage in the back end, though the quarterbacks the defense has faced have not been prolific passers and have used their legs more frequently. MSU ranks 14th nationally in total defense (254.8 yards per game), 26th in passing yards allowed (158.0), 29th in rushing yards allowed (96.8) and 25th in scoring (14.3 points). The Buckeyes have not needed to exert much energy against lesser competition, outscoring opponents 157-20 through their three games. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has OSU ranked third in the country in scoring (52.3) and fifth in total offense (552 yards) — 14th in both passing (311 yards) and rushing (241).
More: Jonathan Smith’s record shows QB patience should be rewarded for Michigan State football
Know the foe
Will know more: Even OSU isn’t immune from the drop-add portal process. The Buckeyes picked up former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard during the offseason, and the 6-foot-4, 235-pound fifth-year graduate transfer is 51-for-74 passing (68.9%) for 795 yards and six TDs with one interception. He ran for 921 yards on 226 carries with 19 touchdowns in four seasons at KSU, but has just eight carries for 22 yards with two scores so far this season.
Talent aplenty: Howard’s passing numbers benefit greatly from the increase in talent around him in Columbus. The latest star freshman is Jeremiah Smith, an electrifying 6-3, 215-pound wideout who leads the Buckeyes with 281 yards and four touchdowns receiving. Senior Emeka Egbuka (266 yards, 14 catches, TD) and sophomore Carnell Tate (167 yards, 11 catches, TD) are also dynamic. On the other side, defensive ends Jack Sawyer (four tackles, sack), defensive tackle Tyleik Williams (seven tackles, 1½ sacks) and cornerback Denzel Burke (four tackles, interception) are potential first-round picks on a defense loaded with a number of top-100 prospects for the 2025 NFL draft.
Dynamic duo: On the ground, Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins (336 yards on 36 attempts with five touchdowns) and longtime standout TreVeyon Henderson (207 yards, 24 carries, four TDs) has proven to be another strong running back tandem, with freshman James Peoples (22 carries, 114 yards, two TDs) getting ample early opportunities to make an impact.
Chris Solari’s two cents
Lopsided lately: Ohio State has dominated the series since 2015 and won eight straight, leading in points 320-77. The past four years, OSU has put the game away by halftime with a 147-26 advantage. In the past seven meetings, the Buckeyes have outgained MSU on average, 531.4-232.1, while topping 600 yards twice, and have outrushed the Spartans 245.7-61.9 in those games. MSU has not outgained Ohio State since a 17-16 loss at home in 2016, a 334-310 edge in total offense.
Dantonio honored: Mark Dantonio, MSU’s all-time winningest coach who retired in early 2020, will be honored during the game for his impending Dec. 10 induction into the College Football Hall of Fame. Dantonio’s name already was hoisted into the Ring of Fame inside Spartan Stadium going into Saturday’s game against the Buckeyes, with whom he won a national title in 2003 as defensive coordinator.
Dantonio went 114-57 with three Big Ten titles, the 2015 CFP appearance and 12 bowl appearances in 13 seasons from 2007-19. He won the program’s first Rose Bowl in 25 years after the 2013 Big Ten title, and finished No. 3 in the nation that year.
Prediction
The Spartans give the Buckeyes a more competitive first half than they have in recent years. However, the physical toll from OSU’s front seven and the frustration of missed opportunity wear on their already-thin and fragile offense. MSU’s defense wilts in the second half, as Howard picks apart an untested and injury-limited secondary, and the Judkins-Henderson dual battering ram grinds out the road victory. The pick: Ohio State 38, MSU 13.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State football vs Ohio State prediction, scouting report
