Can the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture get any more sideways after Harrison Burton’s improbable victory Saturday night at Daytona?
The Cup Series playoffs consist of 16 drivers — the regular-season champion and then the next 15 drivers ranked by wins with ties broken by points.
All three drivers who have a shot at the regular-season title are among the 13 drivers who have a win this year that have locked them in the playoffs. That means there are three spots available by points going into the regular-season finale next Sunday at Darlington.
Or, there’s a slight chance that it could be two if Austin Dillon wins his final appeal Monday to his penalties from his Richmond win, where NASCAR has revoked the automatic bid because of his contact with two drivers in the final turns.
So who’s in, who’s on the bubble and who is at win-at-all-costs?
Those 13 drivers with wins who are in: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton.
There are five winless drivers competing for the three spots: Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain.
“Should have won multiple times this year and I haven’t,” Wallace said. “We don’t even deserve to be here and we are. Got to go win next week. That is it.”
NASCAR Cup Series: Harrison Burton wins a wild one at Daytona!
Here are the clinching scenarios for those drivers:
–Truex has a 58-point edge on Wallace, the first driver currently on the outside looking in. Truex is in if there is no new winner at Darlington (assuming Dillon loses the appeal). Even with a new winner, he is in good shape at 19 points ahead of Ty Gibbs and 37 points ahead of Buescher. His only real danger is if Dillon wins the appeal and there is a new winner at Darlington, and if he has a subpar day where Gibbs could leap ahead of him. Truex has two career wins at Darlington but has finished no better than 18th there in his last five starts.
–Gibbs has a 39-point edge on Wallace and an 18-point buffer on Buescher. If Dillon loses the appeal and there is no new winner, Gibbs guarantees himself a spot with a finish of 20th or better at Darlington (and likely wouldn’t have to finish remotely that well). Gibbs likely is good unless he gets in a wreck or has a mechanical issue at Darlington. He was second at Darlington in May.
“Just [need to] have a good run,” Gibbs said. “We finished second there in the spring.
“I think we have the speed to go win it, so I think it would be cool to get my first win at the Southern 500. That would be awesome.”
–Buescher has a 21-point edge on Wallace and 27 points on Chastain for the current final spot. This is likely the battle if there is no new winner (assuming Dillon loses the appeal). Buescher already has suffered heartbreak at Darlington, where earlier this year he and Tyler Reddick tangled while battling for the win. Buescher was third at Darlington a year ago.
“We go into Darlington points being what they are — a little bit of a cushion there,” Buescher said. “We know we were really good there last time.”
–Wallace is 21 points behind Buescher for the last playoff spot. If Buescher has a bad first two stages and Wallace can gain points, he’d have shot to get to him. That’s a big if. Wallace most likely has to win. Wallace has four consecutive top-10s at Darlington but no finish better than fifth.
–Chastain, at 27 points behind, is in a similar position as Wallace. Darlington is a good track for Chastain, but he has just two top-5 finishes in Cup at the track.
“I look at it like we have another chance to go win the Southern 500,” Chastain said. “That’s what I’m focused on.”
There are 17 other playoff-eligible drivers who face must-win situations at Darlington to make the playoffs: Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek and Zane Smith.
Of them, Busch and Jones have won Cup races at Darlington.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
Get more from NASCAR Cup Series Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
