The Auburn Tigers (2-2) host their final home game until November this Saturday when Hugh Freeze’s squad welcomes Oklahoma (3-1) to the Plains for the first time as a SEC adversary.
Calling Auburn’s season a roller-coaster through a month of play would be a disservice to the amusement park rides we’ve come to know and love. The Tigers simply have not looked like a consistent football team through four games in 2024, making many fans contemplate whether Hugh Freeze is taking his team in the right direction through his season-plus as head coach.
On the other side, Oklahoma has been mostly successful through its inaugural campaign in the SEC. The Sooners did drop a home game to a very talented Tennessee team a week ago, but have otherwise looked dominant and ready to content for a spot in the 12-Team College Football Playoff by the time the dust of the regular season settles. Like Auburn however, Oklahoma has received inconsistent quarterback play, leading head coach Brent Venables to bench his star quarterback Jackson Arnold in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.
Despite the quarterback change and road matchup, BetMGM has the Sooners listed as 2.5-point favorites in Jordan-Hare Stadium this weekend. ESPN”s Football Power Index likes the Sooners chances of penciling off their first SEC win as a program as well, as the Index gives Oklahoma a 57.4% chance to send Tiger fans home with an extra roll of toilet paper.
The experts are projecting this game to be very close, but will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to earn a major home victory than people believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
As mentioned above, both programs enter Saturday’s matchup with major question marks surrounding the quarterback room. Oklahoma will send out freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. to make his first career start in front of what should be an electric crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium, while Auburn has yet to name a starter for Saturday.
Hawkins Jr. has taken very limited snaps as a college signal-caller, but looked good in relief of Jackson Arnold last Saturday against Tennessee. In total, the Dallas, TX native has completed 13 of 22 pass attempts for 149 yards and a touchdown. The 6-foot-1, 204-pound quarterback has also rushed for 32 yards on 14 attempts, although the yardage number is skewed because of 2 sacks.
On the Auburn side, Payton Thorne and Hank Brown have combined for 1,103 passing yards, 13 touchdowns through the air, and 8 interceptions. Brown hasn’t provided much of anything on the ground, while Thorne has rushed for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24 carries. The issue with Auburn’s signal callers has not been the yardage totals and explosive plays, but the inability to take care of the football. Because of the turnover plague, it’s hard to give either Tiger quarterback the advantage until they prove they can play a clean game. Even with Oklahoma turning to a freshman on the road, Hawkins Jr. gets the slight advantage.
As for the skill position battle, Auburn has a clear advantage. Oklahoma has not been a very explosive offensive team this season, where Auburn has ranked second in the conference in plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers have the skill players to blow games open, but the inability of the offense to take care of the football has not allowed them to do so. KeAndre Lambert-Smith is far and away the best pass catcher in this game, while Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter has shown he is the best back as well. Sooners junior wide receiver Deion Burks is a very good player, but Auburn’s pass catching quartet of KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Cam Coleman, Robert Lewis, and Malcolm Simmons are clearly the better unit in this game.
On the defensive side, the advantage is not as clear. The Sooners defensive unit has been adequate, but not outstanding through four games. Oklahoma has conceded just 14 points and 270 yards per game to opponents this season, while Auburn has been slightly worse, giving up almost 17 points per contest. The Sooners have played the harder schedule thus far as well, with games against Tennessee (4-0) , Tulane (2-2), and NC State (2-2) already over with. Oklahoma just played a fine defensive game against No. 5 ranked Tennessee, giving them a slight edge over an Auburn defense that has given up 20+ points to a pair of middling Power 4 programs in Cal and Arkansas.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, this game seems about as even as the experts believe. Oklahoma boasts the better defense and offensive abilility to take care of the football, giving the Sooners the slight edge so long as they can continue to force Auburn’s offense into turnovers. If the Tigers can take care of the ball however, they may come out with a huge, “upset”, victory,
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This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Oklahoma
