BJP’s core committee has taken responsibility for winning the by-elections to 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. In the meeting held at the Chief Minister’s residence, it was decided that both the organization and the government will jointly write the story of victory in the by-election. CM Yogi Adityanath, Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, Deputy CM Brijesh Pathak, BJP State President Bhupendra Chaudhary and General Secretary Organization have been assigned two seats each. The top-5 BJP leaders themselves will be in charge of the by-polls, but the biggest question is who has been given the most challenging seat between Yogi-Keshav-Pathak-Chowdhury and Dharampal.
By-elections are to be held on the 10 vacant assembly seats after the Lok Sabha elections. It includes Phulpur, Ghaziabad, Mazwan, Kher, Mirapur, Kundarki, Karhal, Milkipur, Katehari and Sisamau seats. Five seats have become vacant due to the conviction of four SP MLAs as MPs and one MLA, while three MLAs from the BJP’s quota have become MPs. Apart from this, one seat has fallen vacant after an RLD MLA became an MP and one seat fell vacant after a Nishad Party MLA was elected as an MP from the BJP. Thus, five seats belong to the SP quota, while five seats belong to the BJP-led NDA. In such a situation, it is understandable how important the by-election is being considered.
CM Yogi had formed his committee of 30 ministers to prepare for the UP by-elections, but it has now been decided that the top five leaders of the government and the organization will take over the responsibility. CM Yogi Adityanath has got the responsibility of Katehari and Milkipur Assembly seats. Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya has been given the charge of Phulpur and Manzwa while Brijesh Pathak has been given charge of Sisamau and Karhal seats. BJP state president Bhupendra Chaudhary has been given the responsibility of Kundarki and Mirapur while organization general secretary Dharampal Singh has been given the responsibility of Ghaziabad and Kher seats.
Will CM be able to feed Yogi Kamal?
CM Yogi Adityanath has got the responsibility of Milkipur Assembly in Ayodhya and Kateri Assembly in Ambedkar Nagar. Both these seats were won by SP in 2022. Lalji Verma was elected MLA from Katheri, while Awadhesh Prasad won from Milkipur, but now both SP MLAs have become MPs. CM Yogi has been entrusted with the responsibility of blossoming the lotus on these two SP quota seats. Since the Milkipur seat came into political existence, the BJP has won it only twice, once in 1991 and again in 2017. In 1991, BJP managed to win Kateri seat only once.
Katehari and Milkipur seats are considered politically very favorable for SP and BSP. CM Yogi has got the responsibility of both the seats which are considered difficult for BJP. CM Yogi himself will weave the crown of victory for BJP in Milkipur and Katehari seats. Besides, there is the challenge of solving the political equation of these two seats. Milkipur seat is reserved for scheduled castes and has the largest number of Dalit voters. Along with the general class, OBC voters are also crucial, while Muslims also play an important role. Similarly, Katheri seat has the largest number of Dalit voters, but Muslim, Brahmin, Kurmi, Nishad voters are also in large numbers. This seat is considered very difficult for BJP in terms of caste equation. In such a situation, it remains to be seen how CM Yogi writes the story of BJP’s victory.
Keshav got the work of Phulpur and Mazwan.
Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya has been entrusted with the by-election of Phulpur and Mazwan assembly seats. BJP managed to win Phulpur seat in 2022, while Mazwan seat was won by its ally Nishad Party. MLAs from both these seats have now become MPs, due to which by-elections are to be held. BJP managed to win Phulpur seat in 2017 and 2022, while BJP won Mazwan seat in 2017. The Nishad Party MLA was elected in 2022. SP has never opened an account in Mazwan seat, while its MLA in Phulpur was elected in 2012.
Keeping in view the political equation of Phulpur and Mazwan assembly seats, Keshav Prasad Maurya has been given the responsibility. Keshav Prasad Maurya himself has been MP from Phulpur and hails from this area. Dalit and Yadav voters are important in Phulpur, but Kurmi is proving to be a trump card here. There is a large number of Brahmins and Muslims here, due to which SP is winning. If we look at the equation of Mazwan seat, Brahmin, Mallah, Kushwaha, Pal, Dalit and Thakur voters are important, by exploiting them the script of victory has been written. The BSP was in control from 2002 to 2017 and was subsequently won by the BJP in 2017 and the Nishad Party in 2022. BJP has made a strategy to maintain its winning streak by attracting OBC votes through Keshav Maurya.
Hardest work for Brijesh Pathak
Deputy CM Brijesh Pathak has been given charge of Sismau in Kanpur and Karhal assembly seat in Mainpuri. Both these seats are considered very challenging for BJP. SP has been winning the Sismau assembly seat three times in a row and Irfan Solanki was the MLA. BJP has not won this seat since 1996. SP has lost Karhal seat only once. Thus, both the seats are considered among the strongest seats of the SP and are very difficult for the BJP. Thus Brijesh Pathak has been assigned the most difficult task in the by-election, where he has the responsibility of feeding the lotus. Akhilesh Yadav has been MLA from Karhal seat in 2022, who has resigned after becoming MP.
Looking at the equations of the Sismau seat, the largest number of voters are Muslims, followed by Brahmins, then Dalits, Kayasthas, Vaishyas, Yadavas and Sindhis. Muslim voters are about one lakh, while 50 thousand are Brahmins. Irfan Solanki has scored a hat-trick of wins by adding votes from other castes along with Muslim votes. Karhal seat has been a traditional seat of the SP, where Yadav voters are over one lakh, followed by Pal and Shakya voters. Apart from this Dalit and Thakur votes are also good. Thus Brijesh Pathak’s challenge has increased by giving him the toughest seat. BJP’s victory on these two seats is like chewing iron gram for Brijesh Pathak.
Bhupendra Chaudhary got a tough challenge
BJP state president Bhupendra Chaudhary has got the responsibility of Muzaffarnagar’s Mirapur and Moradabad’s Kundarki assembly seats. According to BJP, both the seats are considered difficult. BJP has managed to win election from Kundarki seat only once, while BJP has won Mirapur seat only once in 2017 after coming into political existence. SP has managed to win Kundarki seat in 2022, while Mirapur seat was won by RLD with SP support. Chandan Chauhan, an MLA from RLD, has now been elected as an MP. The RLD is preparing to contest a by-election on this seat, while the BJP will try its luck on the Kundarki seat.
Looking at the political equation of the Kundarki seat, over 65 percent are Muslim voters, followed by Dalit and other OBC voters. Apart from this, the number of Rajput voters is around 30 thousand. If we look at the equation of Mirapur seat, it has the highest number of Muslims. There are one lakh ten thousand Muslims and about 55 thousand Dalit voters. After this, Jats number 25 thousand, Gurjars 20 thousand, while Prajapati and other OBCs also have good votes. Thus, both are Muslim-majority seats, in such a scenario, it remains to be seen how Bhupendra Chaudhary decides the winning formula for the BJP and its allies.
A lawsuit will be filed against Dharampal Singh
Uttar Pradesh BJP Organization General Secretary Dharampal Singh has been entrusted with the responsibility of Kher assembly seats in Ghaziabad and Aligarh. In 2022, BJP managed to win both the seats. Ghaziabad seat has been with BJP since 2007, while BJP has been winning this seat since 2017. Both these assembly seats have a good number of Jat voters and the BJP’s position is considered strong due to its alliance with the RLD. Vaishya, Dalit, Jat and Muslim voters are decisive in Ghaziabad, while Jat, Dalit and Muslim are in a win-lose role in Khar seat. The challenge of maintaining BJP’s winning streak is on the shoulders of BJP’s organization general secretary Dharampal Singh.
