The College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams this upcoming season. The five highest-ranked conference winners will each clinch a spot in the field, in addition to the next seven highest-ranked teams.
The new format adds another layer of drama to the 2024 season, as more teams get a longer crack at the national championship and bettors have more odds to consider for CFP markets.
It’s too soon to definitively say which teams will end up in the final 12, but the preseason AP poll was released Monday and gives us a glimpse of where voters think the balance of power stands today.
If the end-of-season rankings are similar — which they definitely won’t be — the top four seeds will be Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Florida State (ACC) and Utah (Big 12). And though a fifth conference isn’t represented in the current top 25, Boise State (Mountain West) received the most votes of teams from other conferences, so we’ll give them the fifth and final conference champ spot.
The next seven teams to qualify are Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Penn St. and Michigan.
So, which teams hold betting value based on these results?
Boise State (+400)
Let’s start with Boise, which has -125 odds to win the Mountain West and +400 odds to make the playoff. The Broncos received 15 more votes in the poll than the next non-power conference team, which is Liberty (C-USA).
Utah (+200)
The Utes jump over to the Big 12 this year just as Texas and Oklahoma are departing, so that clears the way for a conference title and progress over last year’s 8-5 season, which might have been even better if not for injuries.
Florida State (+150)
Plus money on a team that was an undefeated snub for the playoff last year is always a good investment, even as the Seminoles transition to a new quarterback. Even if they fall short of an ACC title at +300, they’ll have an outside chance of getting in.
Michigan (+125)
There’s all kind of turnover at Michigan, from head coach to quarterback and other places across the roster. But this is still the reigning national champions. I’ll take +125 odds on them to make it back to an expanded playoff any day.
Memphis (+625)
Memphis is a good alternative to Boise and Liberty (which doesn’t currently have odds listed) for teams in the running to grab that fifth conference championship spot. They’re +210 favorites to win the American, which would have put SMU in the playoff if it were 12 teams last year.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: What the AP preseason rankings tell us about the potential 12-team College Football Playoff field and bets to consider now
